Short interest in the iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF (EWW US) has increased 105% this year, increasing from $364 million in January to $745 million today. With a $1.04 billion market cap, almost 75% of the outstanding float is being shorted.
EWW short interest was actually decreasing in the first half of the year, falling to $315 million in mid-June, down 20%. This coincided with Republican candidate for president, Donald Trump’s drop in the polls to 38.4% according to the website realclearpolitics.com.
By the end of August EWW short interest increased slightly, to $346 million, just as Donald Trump’s polling number rose to 42%.
September had Donald Trump’s polling number up to 44.4% and EWW short interest was up again, increasing $259 million to end the month at $605 million.
And finally, in October and November EWW short interest was up $141 million, hitting a new historical high of $746 million. By November 2nd, realclearpolitics.com had Donald Trump’s approval rating at 45.3%, near his historical high of 45.7%.
Because of Donald Trump’s immigration and trade policies the Mexican economy may suffer if he gets elected. EWW’s stock price and Donald Trump’s polling numbers have been moving in tandem this year. In a week we will be able to see what effect a Trump or Clinton presidency will have on the EWW ETF.
For more information on the above analysis, please contact:
Ihor Dusaniwsky, Head of Research, S3 Partners, LLC Ihor.Dusaniwsky@S3Partners.net
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